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Book Review, © Copyright 1998, Jim Loy
Edwin Silberstang probably makes a lot of money on gambling, by selling books. He claims that he can win whenever he wants to, at craps. I am skeptical. He begins the book by warning the reader about the gambler's fallacy, which I describe in my article: The Gambler's Fallacy. Then we find that most of his book is based on the second version of the same fallacy. He recommends that when you are on a winning streak, that you should quit (as your luck is about to change). And when you are on a losing streak, you should keep playing (as your luck is about to change). This advice is pure gambler's fallacy, of the second kind that I describe in my article.
A worthless book? No, not at all. In craps, there are good bets (ones which give you almost even odds), and really bad bets. Many people go for the bad bets. Mr. Silberstang does a very good job of pointing out the good bets, and warning you about the bad bets. By avoiding the bad bets, you should lose in the long run; but you should lose fairly slowly. And you can certainly luck out and win.